基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

LBM investigation of a Cu-water nanofluid over various configurations of pipes in the mixed convection flow

Increasing the heat capacity of heat exchangers is a crucial need for modern devices. The thermal conductivity of the usual fluids and the Nusselt (Nu) number of flows containing such fluids are two bottlenecks in the way of increasing heat delivery in the heat exchangers. For this reason, nanofluids have been introduced. The effect of utilizing a Cu-water nanofluid as a coolant of two hot pipes in a square cavity is investigated numerically with a two-component lattice Boltzmann method. The volume fraction of nanoparticles is assumed to be constant (0.03) while the Richardson (Ri) number varies from 0.02 to 20. Results show that the effectiveness of nanoparticles is better observed in the natural convection mode. However, sedimentation is also very probable at high Ri numbers, which significantly reduces the effectiveness of the nanoparticles. Configurations which produce a natural convection stream similar to the forced convection one as well as the configurations with high spacing and hence, low heat stream interactions, are the best choices for a uniform heat rate from the pipes.     

Influence of CO2 inleakage on the slight-alkalization of generator internal cooling water

The slight-alkalization of generator internal cooling water (GICW) is widely used to inhibit the corrosion of hollow copper conductor and thereby ensure the safe operation of the generator. CO₂ inleakage is increasingly identified as a potential security risk for GICW system. In this paper, the influence of CO₂ inleakage on the slight-alkalization of GICW was theoretically discussed. Based on the equilibriums of the CO₂-NaOH-H₂O system, CO₂ inleakage saturation was derived to quantify the amount of the dissolved CO₂ in GICW. This parameter can be directly calculated with the measured conductivity and the [Na⁺] of GICW. The influence of CO₂ inleakage on the slight-alkalization conditioning of GICW and the measurement of its water quality parameters were then analyzed. The more severe the inleakage, the narrower the water quality operation ranges of GICW, resulting in the more difficult the slight-alkalization conditioning of GICW. The temperature calibrations of the conductivity and the pH value of GICW show non-linear correlations with the amount of CO₂ inleakage and the NaOH dosage. This study provides insights into the influence of CO₂ inleakage on the slight-alkalization of GICW, which can serve as the theoretical basis for the actual slight-alkalization when CO₂ inleakage occurs.     

工业园区混合能源优化配置方法应用与实践

为了充分挖掘多能源之间的互补潜力,使工业园区混合能源系统的配置方式由传统粗放式转变为精确优化配置并降低系统配置方案的保守性,基于粒子群联合CPLEX求解算法对工业园区的系统配置和运行调度方案进行分析优化,并以某生物园区为例进行了实例分析,得到了目标函数下的最优设计方案和运行策略。仿真分析结果表明,优化配置方法的应用能够协调冷热电多种能源的混合利用,提升系统的综合经济性。同时,为工业园区能源供应项目的规划、设计提供参考性支撑,丰富设计手段。     

生物质纤维和改性木质素对聚乳酸结晶性能的影响

采用改性木质素(MZS)作为成核剂,生物质纤维(BF)作为增强剂,通过双螺杆挤出机制备了生物降解的聚乳酸(PLA)/BF/MZS材料。采用差式扫量热仪(DSC)、电子万能试验机和扫描电子显微镜(SEM)分析了BF和MZS对PLA材料性能的影响。结果表明,BF和MZS有效提高了PLA的结晶能力和力学性能。当BF和MZS的含量分别为15%和1%时,PLA材料结晶度提高至67.1%,在50℃/min降温速率下仍具有较高的结晶能力。105℃等温结晶时,15%BF和1%MZS的PLA材料半结晶时间降低至9.0 s,比纯PLA缩短了72.2%。当PLA含有3%BF和1%MZS时,拉伸强度和冲击强度分别为70.1 MPa和7.4 kJ/m^2,比纯PLA分别提高了7.8%和10.4%,根据SEM显示,当BF含量为3%时,在PLA材料中分布较均匀。     

干湿联合冷却塔冷却节水分析软件开发及应用

为实现对干湿联合冷却塔冷却特性、节水特性的综合分析，编制干湿联合冷却塔校核计算流程，基于Visual Studio开发平台，本文开发了干湿联合冷却塔冷却节水特性分析优化软件。通过对某在运干湿联合冷却塔进行冷却节水特性计算，验证了所开发软件计算结果的准确性；在消雾节水计算结果基础上，对标干湿联合消雾冷却塔验收测试规程，生成其成雾频率曲线、耗水量曲线、塔雾指数、冷却特性曲线，综合分析其消雾特性、节水特性及冷却特性，从而确定了干湿联合冷却塔的最佳运行工况。同时运用所开发软件对比分析了某冷却塔设计干段散热面积对其消雾特性、节水特性及冷却特性的耦合影响，并分析了百叶窗开度对干湿联合冷却塔性能的影响，为干湿联合冷却塔的运行优化和设计优化提供了工具性软件支持。     

基于GFU和分层LSTM的组群行为识别研究方法

提出一种以"关键人物"为核心，使用门控融合单元（GFU，Gated Fusion Unit）进行特征融合的组群行为识别框架，旨在解决两个问题：①组群行为信息冗余，重点关注关键人物行为特征，忽略无关人员对组群行为的影响；②组群内部交互行为复杂，使用GFU有效融合以关键人物为核心的交互特征，再通过LSTM时序建模成为表征能力更强的组群特征.最终，通过softmax分类器进行组群行为类别分类.该算法在排球数据集上取得了86.7%的平均识别率.     

Bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in heteroskedastic time series

This article proposes new bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in a time series driven by non-stationary volatility. The assumed volatility process can accommodate discrete breaks, smooth transition variation as well as trending volatility. We develop wild bootstrap sup-Wald tests of the null hypothesis that the process is either stationary [I(0)] or has a unit root [I(1)] throughout the sample. We also propose a sequential procedure to estimate the number of persistence breaks based on ordering the regime-specific bootstrap p-values. The asymptotic validity of the advocated procedures is established both under the null of stability and a variety of persistence change alternatives. A comparison with existing tests that assume homoskedasticity illustrates the finite sample improvements offered by our methods. An application to OECD inflation rates highlights the empirical relevance of the proposed approach and weakens the case for persistence change relative to existing procedures.     

面部运动单元检测研究综述

面部运动单元检测旨在让计算机从给定的人脸图像或视频中自动检测需要关注的运动单元目标。经过二十多年的研究，尤其是近年来越来越多的面部运动单元数据库的建立和深度学习的兴起，面部运动单元检测技术发展迅速。首先，阐述了面部运动单元的基本概念，介绍了已有的常用面部运动单元检测数据库，概括了包括预处理、特征提取、分类器学习等步骤在内的传统检测方法；然后针对区域学习、面部运动单元关联学习、弱监督学习等几个关键研究方向进行了系统性的回顾梳理与分析；最后讨论了目前面部运动单元检测研究存在的不足以及未来潜在的发展方向。